Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

by Fred Fuld III

The book, Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side, is a very thorough  analysis and review of all major financial cycles, including economic cycles, stock market cycles, and real estate cycles.

The book is written by Howard Marks, the cofounder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, which has $120 billion management.

My favorite chapter was Chapter VII: The Pendulum of Investor Psychology, where he discusses the nine elements which swings the pendulum from one direction to another. The same chapter provides the interesting concept of how stocks move no matter what the news, if investors are feeling good.

For  example, if there is strong data, the economy is strengthening and stocks go up. If data is weak, the Fed will probably ease so stocks go up. If the price of oil goes up, it means a growing global economy so stocks go up. If oil drops in price, the consumer has more spending power so stocks go up. He also describes how the reverse can happen when investors’ feelings are negative.

If you want to learn more about market cycles, you should check out  Mastering the Market Cycle.

IPOs that have Doubled in the Last Year

by Fred Fuld III

During the last twelve months, there have been almost 500 initial public offerings of stocks. Some have crashed and burned, some are doing OK, and some are doing well.

However there are several of these IPOs that have done extremely well, more than doubling in price, with most being in the healthcare industry (and a couple in the marijuana category).

Here is the list of IPO stocks that fall into the price-double category:

Canopy Growth Corporation ( CGC )
Correvio Pharma Corp. ( CORV )
Cronos Group Inc. ( CRON )
BRP Inc. ( DOOO )
Marker Therapeutics, Inc. ( MRKR )
Reading International, Inc. ( RDIB )
Sesen Bio, Inc. ( SESN )
SilverCrest Metals Inc. ( SILV )
Disclosure: Author owns CGC.


Brother John: A Monk, a Pilgrim and the Purpose of Life by Templeton Foundation Winner

If you aren’t familiar with Sir John Templeton, he is the founder of the Templeton Growth Fund, a top performing international mutual fund. Money magazine called him “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century.” His family of mutual funds was merged with Franklin Resources to become Franklin Templeton Funds.

Templeton was a billionaire and philanthropist who donated over a billion dollars to charitable causes. He also established the John Templeton Foundation and the Templeton Prize, which is given to a person who “has made an exceptional contribution to affirming life’s spiritual dimension, whether through insight, discovery, or practical works.”

One of the winners of the prize is August Turak, author of the recently published book, Brother John: A Monk, a Pilgrim and the Purpose of Life. The book is about a man going through a mid-life crisis who meets an umbrella-wielding Trappist monk on Christmas Eve, and how it changes his life.

The book also includes over twenty pages of multi-color paintings by the award winning painter, Glenn Harrington.

Brother John is a well-written book about life, beautifully illustrated, and would make a great gift.


Blast from the Past: The Pretender – Film Noir about an Investment Manager who Steals his Client’s Money

Here is a Blast from the Past. A film noir movie about an investment manager who steals from his client because he keeps getting margins calls from the stockbroker who handles the trades.

The movie is called The Pretender, and was filmed in 1946, starring Albert Dekker and Catherine Craig.

If you like film noir, you will enjoy this one, as it has a few unexpected twists and turns.

The Pretender is available on Amazon, and is free to watch if you have Amazon Prime.

Top High Yield Stocks

by Fred Fuld III

If you are looking for income investments with growth potential, there is no better choice than stocks that pay a high dividend. However, you want to make sure that the stocks have good fundamentals.

Here are a few stocks yielding over 6%, with price to earnings ratios of less than 15, forward P/Es less than 15, a price to earnings growth ratio of less than one, and a price to sales ratio of less than one.

Ford Motor Company (F), the one of only two car companies that have never gone bankrupt (Tesla (TSLA) is the other one), trades at 6.3 times trailing earnings and 6.8 times forward earning. The stock has a dividend yield of 6.3%

Tupperware Brands (TUP), the kitchen products, storage, and beauty products company, trades at a forward P/E of 8.2% and pays a very generous yield of 7%.

Unique Fabricating (UFAB) is in the automotive parts manufacturing business. The forward P/E is 7.6% and the yield on the stock is a magnanimous 7.4%.

Hopefully, one of these stocks can boost your portfolio income.


Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

The Top Thanksgiving Stocks

by Fred Fuld III

It’s almost that time again to get stuffed! A time when you get to talk turkey to all your relatives, and maybe even getting a dressing down from one of them.

OK, enough with the puns. Time to make a little gravy with some Thanksgiving stocks.

Thanksgiving is November 22. There are several companies that will benefit from the Thanksgiving holiday. Here are some examples:

Tyson Foods (TSN) sells Hillshire Brands turkeys. The stock has a trailing price to earnings ratio of 7 and a forward P/E of 10. It pays a yield of 1.95%.

Campbell Soup (CPB) sells Pepperidge Farm stuffing. Campbell has a forward P/E of 15 and has a yield of 3.8%.

ConAgra, Inc. (CAG) sells Marie Callender’s pumpkin pie. The stock trades at 16 times forward earnings and yields 2.4%.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) sells Heinz Gravy and Stove Top Stuffing. It has a forward P/E of 13.5 and pays a generous yield of 4.9%.

Other Thanksgiving stocks  include Hormel (HRL) which sells the Jennie-O brand of turkeys, Constellation Brands (STZ) which produces Mondavi wine and many other wines, and Lifetime Brands (LCUT) which makes KitchenAid utensils.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Pan-Industrial Revolution: How New Manufacturing Titans will Transform the World

by Fred Fuld III

The book, The Pan-Industrial Revolution: How New Manufacturing Titans will Transform the World, by Richard D’Aveni, is about how the manufacturing industry is changing dramatically due to the major advances in 3D technology.

The proliferation of 3D technology, now often referred to as additive manufacturing, is ubiquitous but hidden. Many of the largest companies in the United States, and for that matter, the world, are actively pursuing the 3D tech manufacturing process. D’Aveni brings this secret world to light.

The author also describes how this major change in manufacturing affects the earnings of companies, jobs, and the economy in general.

My favorite chapter was “Chapter 3: Making More, Faster and Cheaper” and not just because of the pictures (yes the book even has pictures), in which he talks about the enormous advantages of both economies of scale and economies of scope with additive manufacturing.

I even got a couple of investment ideas from the book.

Whether you are familiar with 3D printing or not, The Pan-Industrial Revolution will open your eyes to the future of manufacturing and business.

Kevin Costner Starred in ‘Ancient’ Apple Ad: Wall Street Video of the Week

Does any one remember what a Lisa Computer was? Has anyone ever touched one? (I did, for a couple hours many years ago.) This was one of the first follies of Steve Jobs. Talk about a clunky, unattractive computer. Anyway, when Apple (AAPL) ran a Lisa television commercial long ago, guess who the star was? Kevin Costner, star of Field of Dreams, Dances With Wolves, Bull Durham, JFK, and many other movies.

Top Stocks Under $10 per Share

by Fred Fuld III

If you are looking for a top stock from a value standpoint, what fundamentals would you look for? The following are the most common fundies that many value investors look for.

  • P/E [price earnings ratio] under 15
  • Forward P/E under 15
  • PEG [price to earnings growth] less than 1
  • P/S [price sales ratio] less than 1
  • Pays a dividend

Here are the stocks with the above criteria that sell for less than $10 per share:

ACCO Brands (ACCO)

Chico’s (CHS)

Ford (F)

Ferroglobe (GSM)

Manning & Napier (MN)

Unique Fabricating (UFAB)

Transforming Nokia: The Power of Paranoid Optimism to Lead Through Colossal Change

by Fred Fuld III

The average investor may not be aware of this but Nokia was a major turnaround situation. The book, Transforming Nokia: The Power of Paranoid Optimism to Lead Through Colossal Change, by Risto Siilasmaa, goes into extensive detail about how this transformation took place.

Between 2008 and 2012, Nokia almost went bankrupt, dropping in value by over 90%, primarily due to competition from Apple (AAPL). At that time, Risto Siilasmaa too over and saved the company.

But the book is more than that. The author provides ways, base on his experience, the you can use in your business to deal with business struggles and major changes.

Chapter 10, “The Golden Rules,” is an important one where he covers the principles that should be applied in any business. My favorite is number 8 which relates to formality and substance relating to meetings, in which he writes “Any meeting where we don’t laugh out loud is a miserable failure!”

I also liked Chapter 11 in which he emphasizes the importance of using scenario mapping. The chapter is called “Plan B … and Plan C and Plan D.”

If you own your own business or are the head of a company,  Transforming Nokia is a book you need to read.