Statistics: Gold versus the Stock Market This Century

by Fred Fuld III

It may look like gold hasn’t been doing much of anything recently. Even for the last twelve months, gold has been relatively flat.

So what about long term. Can gold outperform the stock market over a long period of time?

Of course, it depends on the time frame, but let’s look at this century, beginning January 3, 2000 (the first business day of the year).

Based on that time frame, gold has far outperformed the various stock indices, including the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

As a matter of fact, gold has increased by 558% over that time, versus 329% for the S&P 500 as measured by the SPDR SPY ETF (SPY), which was only up 329%. This includes dividends for the SPY.

The statistics for the returns are below, which also include the Dow and the NASDAQ.

Gold versus Stocks This Century
Percentage increase in price from January 3, 2000 to the present
Dow Jones Industrial Average 190%
S&P 500 as measured by SPY 329%
NASDAQ as measured by QQQ 276%
Gold price per ounce 558%
* Adjusted for splits and dividend and/or capital gain distributions
Sources: Yahoo!Finance historical data, sdbullion.com

Is gold in your portfolio?

Top Inflation Hedge Gold Mining Stocks

by Fred Fuld III

It was just back in September when I wrote the article Top Gold Mining Stocks, almost six months to the day. In the article, I listed seven gold mining companies. The following shows the returns for those stocks.

Stock Symbol 9/13/22 3/10/22 Gain/Loss
AngloGold Ashanti Limited AU 15.5 25.73 66%
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc CMCL 12.36 13.49 9%
DRDGOLD Limited DRD 9.15 10.14 11%
Gold Fields Limited GFI 8.64 16.69 93%
Harmony Gold Mining Company HMY 3.28 5.41 65%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC 5.75 5.66 -2%
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW 13.61 18.32 35%
AVERAGE 40%

As you can see, there was only one loser in the bunch, Kinross Gold (KGC) which was down 2%. However, all the others were up substantially. One, Gold Fields (GFT), almost doubled. The overall average return was 40%; not too shabby for a six month period.

Gold an Inflation Hedge & Recession Hedge?

Some studies have shown that gold may not track inflation during short time frames, but over long periods of time, gold has been considered an inflation hedge and a hedge against a downturn in the economy.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “gold prices can act as an indicator of the health of the economy. A rise in the price of gold may be a signal that the economy is struggling. As a result, in times of either a crisis or inflation, many investors turn to gold to protect their principal. By contrast, in times of economic stability, investors are more likely to turn to more speculative investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. During these times, the price for gold often declines.”

(What is surprising about this statement is that stocks, bonds, and real estate are considered “speculative investments”. Does that make gold a “safe investment”?)

Top Gold Mining Stocks

So now that gold has started to move up, and recently broke the $2000 an ounce price barrier, what gold mining stocks have solid ratios now.

There are currently four gold mining companies that have trailing price to earnings ratios of less than 25, forward price to earnings ratios of less than 25, and yields above 2%. You will notice that only one stock from the old list, Agnico, made the cut for the new list.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Agnico Eagle is a Canadian based mining company with mines in Canada, Sweden, and Finland. The stock has a trailing P/E ratio of 23.3, a forward P/E ratio of 24.33, and pays a yield of 2.28%. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 79%.

AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)

AngloGold, based in Johannesburg, South Africa, has mines in Africa, North America, South America, and Australia. The stock trades at 16.9 times trailing earnings and 12 times forward earnings. The dividend payout rate is 2.11%. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 97%.

B2Gold Corp. (BTG)

The Canada based company, B2Gold, has three operating mines in Mali, the Philippines, and Namibia. The stock has a very favorable P/E ratio of 10.7 and forward P/E of 10.4. Even the price to earnings growth ratio is a commendable 0.53. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 33%.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW)

Sibanye is a South African company that has mines in South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The stock has an excellent price to earnings ratio of 6.2, with a forward P/E of 12.2. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 41%.

Maybe one of these mining stocks can provide your portfolio with a pot of gold.

Disclosure: Author owns BTG

8 Ways to Trade or Invest in Gold in an Inflationary Environment

by Fred Fuld III

You have seen the headlines during the last several months. You have noticed the price increases on Amazon (AMZN), in your supermarket, and even at the dollar stores (which should probably now be called the $1.25 stores). Have you considered using gold as an inflation hedge?

Inflation Headlines

Inflation is here and it’s getting worse. Investors and traders that understand this are now looking for ways to profit from inflation.

Of course no one expects hyperinflation, as was seen in Zimbabwe in 2008. Zimbabwe 100 trillion

In Zimbabwe, the country’s peak month of inflation is estimated at 79.6 billion percent month over month, and 89.7 sextillion percent year over year in mid-November of 2008. That’s an inflation rate in numerical terms of 89,000,000,000,000,000,000,000%.

Zimbabwe $100 billion for 3 eggs

Back then, it cost billions of dollars just to buy basic food items. Inflation was so bad that  the country allowed currencies from other countries to be used in April 2009. In 2015, Zimbabwe switched to the U.S. dollar as its national currency.

In 2019, Zimbabwe reintroduced the Zimbabwe dollar, but unfortunately, hyperinflation has hit the country again, measuring 737% last year.

So what is a trader and investor to do? Here are several ways to make gold work for you.

Gold

Gold has long been considered a primary inflation hedge. Over the last 20 years, the price of gold has increased by 597%, which works out to an annualized return of 10.19%. Taking inflation into consideration, gold has gone up by 335%, or 7.622% annualized.

Many studies have shown that gold has provided superior returns during times of inflation. In addition, according to a study at the Stern School of Business at New York University, “overall gold by itself is a safe haven with respect to exhibiting lower volatility in response to shocks or negative return days.”

The big question is, if you want to invest in gold, how should you do it?

Physical Gold

Physical gold means gold that you can hold in your hot little hands. This could either be gold bullion or gold coins.

Gold Bullion

Gold Bars

Gold bullion is sometimes referred to as gold bars, similar to the bars in Fort Knox. They can be as small as one gram or as large as  400 ounces (27.5 pounds).

The big advantage of gold bullion is privacy. Bullion bars can be kept anywhere: a home safe, a safe deposit box, or in the ground. Another advantage is that bullion is generally less expensive than gold coins, even bullion gold coins.

Gold Bullion Coins

Gold bullion coins are coins that are issued by governments with a very high gold content, but very little or no numismatic value, but are issued as legal tender. In other words, they sell for very close to the price of gold. These coins include the American Gold Eagle and the Canadian Maple Leaf.

Maple Leaf

These coins also have the benefit of privacy, but they are also issued in various denominations, making them easier to trade. For example, if you have a one ounce gold bar but you want to sell one quarter of the gold, you would be stuck. However, you do have the ability to own four American Eagle quarter-ounce gold coins, or even ten 1/10th ounce coins.

Many investors believe that the gold coins have better liquidity than bullion. However, the premium on gold coins is higher than the premium on bullion, and the smaller the denomination of the coin, the higher the premium.

Numismatic Gold Coins

Numismatic gold coins are coins which have value due to their scarcity, physical appearance, condition, and many other factors. They are collected by coin collectors.

Double Eagle
National Numismatic Collection, National Museum of American History

The big advantage is that the value of these coins can increase far more than the value of gold, and can even go up in price if the gold price stays the same or even drops. They are less liquid than bullion coins and have a much bigger spread (the price at which you pay for the coin versus what you can sell it for). The other disadvantage is that the coins have a much higher premium than bullion coins.

There is one big estate tax advantage to owning U.S. numismatic gold coins. Talk to your accountant about it. It is currently legal and above board as far as I know, but I am not an accountant or tax attorney. Consult yours.

Gold Securities

Gold ETFs

Gold ETFs are Exchange Traded Funds that have a goal of tracking the price of gold. There are many of them including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM).

There are even some leveraged gold ETFs, such as ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), which has a goal of providing twice the daily leverage of gold prices.

Gold Mining Stocks

There are many gold mining companies to choose from. The smaller companies are referred to as junior miners (not minor miners). Some of the bigger ones include Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD),AngloGold Ashanti (AU), and Kinross Gold (KGC).

Gold Royalty Trusts

Gold Royalty Trusts do not do any mining. What they do is provide money to mining companies in return for receiving a stream of income based on a percentage of revenues or percentage of gold production.

Some of the biggest gold trusts are Franco-Nevada (FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Royal Gold (RGLD), and Osisko Gold Royalties (OR).

Gold Miners ETFs

Gold Miners ETFs are Exchange Traded Funds that invest in gold mining stocks. VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is the largest of these ETFs. VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) holds the smaller (junior) mining companies. Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2x Shares (NUGT) is a double bullish ETF.

Gold Futures

One other way to invest in gold, which is the most speculative way, is through gold futures. These are exchange-traded contracts to buy or sell a specific amount of gold in the future at a specified price. The returns can be substantial but so are the risks, as your losses can far exceed the original investment that you put up.

How Much Should You Invest in Gold

Many financial advisors recommend that you hold a small amount of gold, up to 5% to 10% of your portfolio as a hedge. Hopefully, gold will make your portfolio sparkle and shine.

Disclosure: Author is long AMZN, GLD, WPM, and OR.

Top Gold Mining Stocks

by Fred Fuld III

Why invest in gold?

It may have bottomed out on a short term basis.

Inflation is on the horizon.

Provides diversification by asset type.

It provides protection against a falling dollar.

It is used in the tech industry.

What are some the the best gold mining stocks?

All of the following stocks have a trailing price to earnings ratio of less than 15, a forward P/E ratio of less than 15, and pay a dividend with a yield of at least 2%.

AngloGold Ashanti Limited AU
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc CMCL
DRDGOLD Limited DRD
Gold Fields Limited GFI
Harmony Gold Mining Company HMY
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW

Caledonia is based in the United States, Kinross is based in Canada, and the rest are based in South Africa.

Hopefully, one of these gold mining stocks will make your portfolio shine.

 

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

Advantages of Gold Royalty Trusts

by Fred Fuld III

Have you ever thought about investing in gold mining companies but were concerned about the risks and lack of dividend income? You may want to consider investing in gold royalty trusts as an alternative.

Gold royalty trusts provide funds to mining company which need a large amount of capital to run their mining operations. In return, the royalty trusts receive a percentage of the gold revenues. The trusts can fund many different mining companies to provide diversification and often buy gold royalty contracts from other companies.

Some trusts also use precious metals streaming, which is when a company makes an agreement with a mining company to purchase all or part of their precious metals production at a predetermined discounted price.

So some of the main benefits of gold royalty trusts are:

  • Income
  • Inflation hedge
  • Portfolio diversification of royalty contracts
  • Gold diversification from bullion, coins, and mining companies
  • Possible tax benefits for the dividends
  • Avoidance of the risks of mining companies
  • Significantly lower expenses due to small number of employees for the trust versus the large employe expenditures for the mining companies
  • Liquidity

Here are some examples of gold and silver royalty trusts that may be worth further investigation for you hard assets and/or income portfolio.

Franco-Nevada (FNV) is a Toronto, Ontario, Canada based owner of royalties and streams, and which trades on the New York Stock Exchange. The company has a market cap of $28.4 billion and pays a dividend yield of 0.78%.  Dividends are paid quarterly and have increased every year since 2014. The stock trades at 48 times trailing earnings and 44 times forward earnings. Over the last three years, revenues have grown by 15%, operating income has increased by 36%, and net income has gone up by 19%.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), based in Vancouver, Canada, specializes in silver metal streaming, and has a market cap of $21 billion. Some of the companies that Wheaton has contracts with include Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Goldcorp (now part of Newmont (NEM)). Wheaton has a yield of 1.03%, with dividends paid quarterly. The latest dividend was increased by 7.7%. The stock has trailing price to earnings ratio of 37 and a forward P/E of 32.

Royal Gold (RGLD), based in Denver, Colorado and trades on the NASDAQ, provides a yield of 0.94%. Dividends were increased by 7.1% this year, and have increased every year since 2004. It is an $8.3 billion company with a trailing P/E of 31 and a forward P/E of 33.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND), based in Vancouver, has a market cap of $1.7 billion. It has a trailing P/E of 57 and a forward P/E of 56. Currently, there is no dividend.

For a list of more than half a dozen gold and silver royalty trusts along with their yields and other information, click HERE.

Hopefully, one of these gold royalty trusts will help you strike it rich.

Disclosure: Author has a long position in WPM and SAND.

 

Dr. Mark Skousen Exclusive Interview: the Stock Market, Bitcoin, GameStop, Gold, & Bear Markets

by Fred Fuld III

The following informative interview was provided by Dr. Mark Skousen, a financial economist, editor of the Forecasts & Strategies financial newsletter since 1980, and Presidential Fellow at Chapman University, where he recently received the “Most Favorite Professor” Award.  He is also the producer of FreedomFest, “the world’s largest gathering of free minds.”  He is the author of several books, including The Maxims of Wall Street, now in its 10th edition.

We cover a lot in this interview, including:

  • The Future of the Stock Market
  • Bear Markets
  • Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, & Blockchain
  • GameStop
  • Young Traders
  • Gold Bullion vs. Gold Stocks
  • Silver
  • Inflation
  • Interest Rates
  • The Technology Sector
  • And much, much more

He even gives the name of a gold mining stock that he likes, which trades for less than $5 a share and pays a yield of over 3%! 

The Dr. Mark Skousen Interview
Enjoy listening to the great insights and information that Dr. Skousen provides:

To stream the interview, click:

HERE

It is a long interview, so it may take a few seconds to load. You can also download the interview as an mp3 by right-clicking (or Control clicking) HERE and choosing “save as.”

Books by Dr. Mark Skousen

Please note that all of Dr. Skousen’s books can be ordered directly from SkousenBooks.com, and they will be autographed and delivered with free shipping.

The Maxims of Wall Street – New 10th Anniversary Edition

A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street

The Making of Modern Economics

EconoPower: How a New Generation of Economists is Transforming the World

His other books can be found at SkousenBooks.com.

Forecasts and Strategies

Information about the Forecasts and Strategies Newsletter and the trading services can be found at MarkSkousen.com.

Enjoy the interview and Happy Investing!

 

All opinions are those of Dr. Mark Skousen, and do not represent the opinions of this site or the interviewer. Neither this site, nor the interviewer, nor the interviewee are rendering tax, legal, or investment advice in this interview.

 

 

 

 

Is It Time for Gold Stocks to Move Up?

by Fred Fuld III

Over the last three months, stocks have been going up, bitcoin has been going up, but gold and gold mining stocks have been dropping in price.

This is in spite of the fact that gold is considered a safe haven, interest rates are very low, the dollar is weak, and the economy will experience eventual increasing inflation.

Not only that, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B) bought Barrick Gold (GOLD) earlier this year.

So it it time for gold and the gold mining stocks to start moving up?

The following is a group of gold stocks that are down over 10% for the latest quarter, have a trailing price to earnings ratio of less than 20, and a forward P/E ratio of less than 20.

AngloGold (AU)

Caledonia Mining (CMCL)

Galiano Gold (GAU)

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

Gifts for Billionaires

You have a couple weeks left to do your gift shopping. Here is a list of gifts for the billionaire who has everything. Buy them now before they are gone.

007 Aston Martin DBS Superleggera Designed by Daniel Craig

This blue Aston Martin automobile has a powerful twin-turbo 5.2-liter V12 engine, and is being offered by Neiman Marcus. The famous 007, Daniel Craig, custom designed the car. Oh yeah; they will throw in an Omega limited edition platinum watch as part of the deal, and of course two free tickets to the latest James Bond movie.

Price: $700,007

Neiman Marcus

Submarine Sports Car

How would you like to drive a zero emissions vehicle that you and drive on land or underwater. This car is offered by Hammacher Schlemmer.

Price: $2,000,000

Hammacher Schlemmer

Amoro 18k White Gold Colombian Emerald and Diamond Ring 

For the special woman in your life, a perfect gift would be an Amoro 18k White Gold Colombian Emerald and Diamond Ring which includes a Colombian Emerald weighing approximately 4.08 carats, and two baguette cut genuine diamonds weighing approximately 1.01 carats.

Price: $110,000

Chartwell Estate

If you are looking to move up to a larger house, Chartwell Estate should make the perfect home. It is also known as the Beverly Hills Mansion. This 25,000 square foot home in Bel Air, California has 11 bedrooms and 18 bathrooms.

Price: $150,000,000 (Sorry, this house was sold literally days ago to Lachlan Murdoch)

photo by Alan Light

Diamond Chess Set

For the Chess Player Who Has Everything: A Diamond Chess Set at a very, very expensive price.

Estimated price: $500,000

1931 Frankenstein Lobby Card Set

This is an original mint complete set of eight Frankenstein Boris Karloff lobby cards from 1931.

Price: $450,000

1796 $2.50 Gold Coin

For the billionaire coin collectors, a gold coin might be the best gift. This is a 1796 $2.50 Capped Bust Quarter Eagle with no stars graded AU-58 by PCGS.

Price: $276,763.31

Most Stolen Library Book

You can’t do without the most expensive investment book ever (and the most stolen library book), Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor by Seth Klarman, which is currently available for $1,300.


Babe Ruth Signed Baseball

A great gift for a baseball fan. A Babe Ruth Autographed Baseball, graded MINT 8, PSA/DNA Certified.

Price: $124,274.96

Trillion Dollar Bill

Finally, for the billionaire who wants to become a trillionaire, you can get a genuine $100 trillion dollar bill.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy Holidays!!!

Disclosure: Some links include affiliate links. Reprinted courtesy of BillionairesLife.com

Using Google Ngram Viewer to Analyze the Interest in Stocks, Bonds, and Gold

Have you ever used Google’s Ngram Viewer? It is an incredible tool. Free, of course. If you don’t know what an ngram is, Wikipedia defines it as “an online search engine that charts frequencies of any set of comma-delimited search strings using a yearly count of n-grams found in sources printed between 1500 and 2008.”

If that is not clear, I will try to define it in very simple terms. It is a chart of the popularity of a word or term or person. For example, I produced a chart of stocks, bonds and gold since 1900.

Gold, bonds, and stocks
Gold, bonds, and stocks

The top green line represents gold. Notice how it went up during the roaring twenties and continued up into the middle of the Depression. Bond had a bit of fluctuation, but stocks, surprisingly, didn’t vary much and even during the Depression, remained relatively flat. (Please remember, none of this has to do with the prices of these items, only the popularity of these terms.)

Gold Bonds Stocks from 1960
Gold Bonds Stocks from 1960

Looking at the chart from 1960, stocks, bonds, and gold seemed to drop off, except from the year 2000, gold started to move up.

What else can you find with n-grams? How about the popularity of Warren Buffett?

Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett

Other that a very slight drop-off from 2005 to 2006, Warren Buffett’s chart has been constantly rising.

Want some more interesting charts? How about Artificial Intelligence?

Artificial intelligence
Artificial Intelligence

Look how it started to take off around 1980 and started to drop off in 1989.

Robotics had a similar run but flattened out at a much higher level than previously.

Robotics
Robotics

Finally, lets look at the stock market by itself, without comparing to bonds or gold.

stock market
stock market

It has been generally in an uptrend, but in 2001 it started dropping and continued to drop.

So where can you find this great tool? just go to:

https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph

Remember, it can be used for searching anything, not just investment information. You can look up topics related to politics, literature, education, and anything else.


One last one for your amusement and especially financial historians:

“bull and bear”

bull and bear
bull and bear