First Twitter is Taken Over: What Stock is Next?

by Fred Fuld III

I’m sure all of you have heard the news that Elon Musk is buying Twitter (TWTR) for $44 billion at $54.20 per share. What some investors are wondering is if there are any other companies that may be bought out.

Twitter falls into the category of Internet Content & Information. Obviously, some of these stocks are extremely large and unlikely to be bought by anyone or any company. But anything is possible. Plus, with the stock market in general, some of these companies might be reaching a favorable buy range.

The following companies are all Internet Content & Information companies, all are profitable with all but one having price to earnings ratios less than 40, all have sales growth over the last five years in excess of 5%, and all have earnings per share growth this year of over 10%.

Company Symbol Market Cap P/E
Meta Platforms, Inc. FB 552.56B 13.56
Gaia, Inc. GAIA 111.99M 28.78
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL 1742.60B 21.93
Pinterest, Inc. PINS 14.23B 39.14
Shutterstock, Inc. SSTK 2.94B 31.57
Yelp Inc. YELP 2.57B 67.07

Keep an eye on these companies during the next few weeks.

 

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

What Do Investors Care About Today?

What Do Investors Care About Today?

by Ned Raynolds and Art Gormley, The Dilenschneider Group

Excerpted from The Public Relations Handbook copyright © 2022 by Robert L. Dilenschneider. Reprinted with permission from Matt Holt Books, an imprint of BenBella Books, Inc. All rights reserved.

Until recently, investors were concerned almost exclusively about a company’s revenues and earnings lines and where those numbers were headed in the future.

No more.

Today, investors are also becoming increasingly interested in a firm’s positive or negative contributions to society, in a process called ESG investing, standing for Environmental, Social, and Governance concerns.

ESG investing integrates those socially responsible factors into investment analysis and decision making. However, the factors also cover a wide spectrum of issues that are also relevant to an investor’s financial assessment of a company. So, a company’s ability to meet ESG factors may also affect that same bottom line that investors look at first.

According to Forbes, ESG can include:

“how corporations respond to climate change, how good they are with water management, how effective their health and safety policies are in the protection against accidents, how they manage their supply chains, how they treat their workers and whether they have a corporate culture that builds trust and fosters innovation.”

The term “ESG” was coined in 2005 in a landmark study entitled “Who Cares Wins.” According to the most recent calculation, ESG investing is estimated at over $20 trillion in assets under management, about a quarter of all professionally managed assets around the world!

What’s more, ESG investing has become big business. At this writing, many large banks and other money managers had jumped aggressively onto the ESG idea as a way to market their services.

ESG also runs parallel to the more general societal trend today to demand socially responsible behavior from business. To see how far we’ve come, dial back to September 1970, when the legendary economist Milton Friedman wrote an essay for the New York Times entitled, “A Friedman Doctrine: The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits.” And contrast that with the Business Round table’s August 2019 statement redefining the purpose of a corporation as promoting “an economy that serves all Americans.” It was signed by 181 CEOs “who commit to lead their companies for the benefit of all stakeholders—customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders.”

Because the Roundtable had been considered a bastion of traditional corporate America, that pronouncement received plenty of attention. But the organization’s commitment really builds on what is becoming the current thinking of many business leaders.

Here’s what some of them have said:

  • In his 2020 letter to shareholders, Larry Fink, chairman and chief executive of Black Rock, who frequently discussed altruistic issues with the firm’s constituents, wrote, “We are facing the ultimate long-term problem. We don’t yet know which predictions about the climate will be most accurate, nor what effects we have failed to consider. But there is no denying the direction we are heading. Every government, company, and shareholder must confront climate change.”
  • Marc Benioff, chair, CEO, and founder of Salesforce, who embraces the title of “activist CEO,” told Fast Company that today, “being a CEO means that you’re taking care of all stakeholders. That stakeholder return is as much table stakes as shareholder return.”
  • And Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, who is also chairman of the Business Roundtable, says, “The American dream is alive, but fraying. Major employers are investing in their workers and communities because they know it is the only way to be successful over the long term. These modernized principles reflect the business community’s unwavering commitment to continue to push for an economy that serves all Americans.”

Further endorsement of ESG principles comes from an unexpected source— the Vatican. The Council for Inclusive Capitalism is affiliated with the Catholic Church and operates under “the moral guidance of Pope Francis.” The Council also includes CEOs of several Fortune 500 companies as well as policymakers and the general secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation. The founder of the Council, Lynn Forester de Rothschild, also chair of investment firm E. L. Rothschild, said, “Doing this is not simply a market imperative . . . The capital markets are such a powerful force, that we need to remember that our actions, who we are and what we are, are based on morality and ethics. And so the Holy Father really asks us to put profits in service of planet and people.”

What are enlightened companies doing today to let investors know about their ESG commitments? Here are some steps to consider:

  • In the annual Form 10-K, include a section summarizing the company’s ESG actions.
  • Issue an annual Sustainability Report, as a number of companies today are doing, especially those with environmental vulnerabilities.
  • Weave material on ESG compliance into earnings news releases and periodically include reports on ESG actions in quarterly earnings presentations.

The above is excerpted from The Public Relations Handbook 

 

About the Editor of The Public Relations Handbook:

Robert L. Dilenschneider formed The Dilenschneider Group in October, 1991. Headquartered in New York and Chicago, the Firm provides strategic advice and counsel to Fortune 500 companies and leading families and individuals around the world, with experience in fields ranging from mergers and acquisitions and crisis communications to marketing, government affairs and international media.

Prior to forming his own firm, Dilenschneider served as president and chief executive officer of Hill and Knowlton, Inc. from 1986 to 1991, tripling that Firm’s revenues to nearly $200 million and delivering more than $30 million in profit.  Dilenschneider was with that organization for nearly 25 years. Dilenschneider started in public relations in 1967 in New York, shortly after receiving an MA in journalism from Ohio State University, and a BA from the University of Notre Dame. For more information, please visit https://robertldilenschneider.com

About the Authors:

Ned Raynolds is a veteran corporate communications executive and strategic advisor with more than thirty years’ experience, versed in all phases of external and internal communications. His focus is on positioning companies that are facing serious challenges with the news media, employees, customers, and the investment community, often working in a team approach with senior management, legal counsel, and outside advisors. Mr. Raynolds previously managed corporate communications for American Airlines for the East Coast, including New York, Boston, and Washington, DC. At American, he enlisted specialty media to reach nearly half a million high-value consumers in Greater New York.

Art Gormley, a Principal with The Dilenschneider Group, joined the firm in 1992, shortly after it was founded. He oversees the firm’s financial relations practice and has worked with the Wall Street and international investment communities for more than twenty-five years. Mr. Gormley has counseled the chief executives, chief financial officers, and boards of directors of countless clients, including some of the world’s largest publicly held corporations. In addition, Mr. Gormley is a highly experienced crisis communicator who has guided clients in their dealings with financial restatements, shareholder litigation, activist investors, and management changes, as well as investigations involving the Securities and Exchange Commission, Internal Revenue Service, and the US Department of Justice, among other government agencies. For more information, please visit https://www.dilenschneider.com

How to Hedge Your Portfolio Against Skyrocketing Food Prices

by Fred Fuld III

Did you know that fertilizer prices spiked in the U.S. market in late 2021, just ahead of 2022 planting season, according to the United States Department of Agriculture? This was before Russia invaded Ukraine.

US Fertilizer Prices

Now, because of the Russian / Ukraine War, prices will continue to rise, since Russia produces almost ten million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizer per year, the fourth largest producer in the world.

Higher Fertilizer Prices

With higher fertilizer prices, you get higher, wheat, corn, and soybean prices. With higher wheat, corn, and soybean prices, you get higher food prices in general. And you can also get food shortages as well.

Higher Food Prices

I recently wrote about the soaring prices of items on Amazon, called The Amazon Inflation Rate is Running at 68% Per Year, and showed that many of these increases were due to food items. I described how dark chocolate candy rose by 148%, light tuna in water by 28%, multi-seed cheesy garlic crackers by 194%, sesame bars with honey and almonds by 134%, and on and on. This was all during a twelve month period ending last November, and remember, this was before the war.

So what is an investor to do?

If you are willing to take a lot of risk, you can trade the futures market. But for those that prefer to stick with stocks and ETFs, there are still opportunities.

Individual Agricultural Funds

One way is by buying agricultural commodities exchange traded funds. There are ETFs and ETNs available for corn, wheat, soybeans, and several other ag products.

The Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN), which invests in corn futures, has a market cap of $222 million, an expense ratio of 1.76%, and is up 29.79% year to date.

The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) has net assets of $493 million. It has an expense ratio of 1.00%, and year-to-date is up 38%.

The Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) has a market cap of $64 million, an expense ratio of 1.16%, and is up 21.18% year to date.

Diversified Agricultural Funds

If you prefer to reduce your risk through diversification, you might want to consider Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA), which invests in a basket of agricultural commodities futures. The market cap is $1.85 billion, the expense ratio is 0.85%, and the year-to-date total return is 11.2%.

Another diversified investment is the Elements Rogers International Commodity Index-Agriculture Total Return ETN (RJA), which is up 17.98% so far this year. The market cap is $153 million and the expense ratio is 0.75%.

Most of these funds are very volatile, very speculative, and can have low volume and very wide spreads.

Maybe one of these will help you offset the prices you pay at the supermarket.

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written but plans to put on a bullish option spread on CORN in the next few days.

 

 

 

Top Software Stocks Short Squeeze Plays

by Fred Fuld III

Many software stocks have made all time highs in the last couple months, but others have been sinking. Several of these software companies are heavily shorted.  When stocks rise quickly in price for whatever reason, short sellers scramble to cover their positions by buying shares, and causing the price of the stock to increase even more.

Traders and investors can make money on the long side from short squeezes. One technique that stock traders utilize is buying short squeeze stocks, companies have been heavily shorted. Here is a more extensive explanation of  short squeezes.

When you short a stock, it means that your goal is to make money from a drop in the price of a stock. Technically, what happens is that you borrow shares of a stock, sell those shares, then buy back those shares at a hopefully lower price so that those shares can be returned. This all happens electronically, so you don’t actually see all the borrowing and returning of shares; it just shows up on your screen as a negative number of shares.

Short sellers can be profitable, but sometimes when the stock moves against them, and begins to rise, the short sellers jump in right away to buy shares to cover their positions, creating what is called a short squeeze. When a short squeeze takes place, it can cause the share prices to increase fast and furiously. Any good news can trigger the short squeeze.

Some traders utilize this situation by looking for stocks to buy that may have a potential short squeeze. Here is what a short squeeze trader should take into consideration:

Short Percentage of Float ~ The float is the number of freely tradable shares and the short percentage is the number of shares held short divided by the float. Amounts over 10% to 20% are considered high and potential short squeeze plays.

Short Ratio / Days to Cover / Short Interest Ratio -This is probably the most important metric when looking for short squeeze trades, no matter what you call it. This is the number of days it would take the short sellers to cover their position based on the average daily volume of shares traded. This is a significant ratio as it shows how “stuck” the short sellers are when they want to buy in their shares without driving up the price too much. Unfortunately for the shortsellers, the longer the number of days to cover, the bigger and longer the squeeze.

Short Percentage Increase ~ This is the percentage increase in in the number of short sellers from the previous month.

So what stocks are heavily shorted that may be worth a closer examination? Check out the following list, but be aware, that often some stocks are heavily shorted for a reason.

All these stocks have significant short metrics.

Stock Symbol % of Float Days to Cover
Asana, Inc. ASAN 24.0% 3.23
Cazoo Group Ltd CZOO 28.5% 12.41
MicroStrategy Incorporated MSTR 23.8% 4.23
PAR Technology Corporation PAR 21.5% 12.95
Porch Group, Inc. PRCH 22.1% 8.42
Clear Secure, Inc. YOU 23.9% 7.83

Here is one example from the list above. PAR Technology (PAR) is a stock that is heavily shorted. As a matter fo fact, over 21% of the float is shorted. Plus, the short interest ratio is 12.95. That means it would take the short sellers over twelve days to cover their positions, based on the number of shares that trade each day on average.

Maybe a short squeeze will cause a few of these to rise sharply, turning lemons into lemonade.

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

Top Books About Financial Swindles, Scandals, and Scams

If you are looking for some springtime reading, then books about financial swindles, scandals, and scams should interest you. All these books are non-fiction, the real thing, and provide true stories that are pretty incredible.

I have real all of these books, except the last one, and I highly recommend all of them. Enjoy.

American Kingpin: The Epic Hunt for the Criminal Mastermind Behind the Silk Road by Nick Bilton
You have probably heard of the Silk Road but do you know anything about the guy behind it? How he started it, how it grew beyond his or anyone’s wildest dreams, and how money and power can corrupt. It also corrupted some members of law enforcement. An amazing story and a book that reads like a page-turner mystery.

Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World by Tom Wright & Bradley Hope
If you have seen the Wolf of Wall Street movie, but you don’t know where the money came from to make the movie, you need to read this book! How billions were swindled with the help of a major investment banking company. The parties were unbelievable, and included such guests as Leonardo DiCaprio and Paris Hilton. The jewelry was unbelievable. The yachts were unbelievable.

Alligator Blood by James Leighton
An Australian in his 20s goes from delivering pizzas to becoming one of the richest people in Australia from online poker. What happens next …

Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man’s Fight for Justice by Bill Browder
A timely book these days. How the author made a huge amount of money trading Russian shares, and the dark consequences of doing so.

Black Edge: Inside Information, Dirty Money, and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wall Street by Sheelah Kolhatkar
About, Steve Cohen, SAC Capital, insider trading, government investigators, and billions of dollars in profits.

The Buy Side: A Wall Street Trader’s Tale of Spectacular Excess by Turney Duff
Autobiographical story of sex, drugs, hedge funds, and lots of money.

The Spider Network: How a Math Genius and a Gang of Scheming Bankers Pulled Off One of the Greatest Scams in History by David Enrich
Have not read this yet, but it’s on my next non-fiction book to read. 4.5 stars on Amazon.

Happy reading!

 

 

 

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