Category: Politics

Democrat Politician Investors Still Outperforming Republican Politician Investors

by Fred Fuld III

Six months ago, I posted an article about the political ETFs, which track the investments of politicians based on the reporting of their transactions, which politicians are legally required to provide.

I mentioned in that article that year-to-date, Democrats were far outperforming the Republicans.

The Democrats, based on the return of the Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NANC), was up 9.4% with the Republicans, Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (KRUZ), trailing far behind at 1.1% for the first half of the year.

Now that the year is over, we can see that the Democratic politicians are still outperforming as investors.

Republicans were up only 9.05%, yet the return for Democrats had a return that was more than double that at 19.67%.

NANC blue line vs. KRUZ green line. Source: Yahoo!Finance

Then there is the Political Contribution Comparison. What it shows is the returns of companies that make political contributions to Democratic versus Republican candidates and political action committees.

This analysis shows even more dramatic returns.

The Democratic Large Cap Core ETF (DEMZ) invests in large cap companies that make political contributions to Democratic Party candidates and political action committees above a certain threshold. Total return for the year is 23.32%.

The Point Bridge America First ETF (MAGA) has a goal of investing in companies  that are highly supportive of Republican candidates. The return for 2023 was just 8.63%.

DEMZ blue line vs. MAGA green line. Source: Yahoo!Finance

Finally, there are the semi-political ETFs. These ETFs are somewhat different in that they leave the politicians out of the analysis, both as investors and political donees. These ETFs have very different returns.

The God Bless America ETF (YALL) is an ETF that screens out companies that support liberal political activism and social agendas. It was up an incredible 36.7% for the year.

The American Conservative Values ETF (ACVF) invests in stocks that meet its politically conservative criteria. The annual return was a positive 23.1%.

Two other “conservative” politically oriented ETFs closed up shop back in August, primarily due to “limited asset growth opportunities and the ongoing operational costs”. These include the 2ndVote Life Neutral Plus ETF which invested in stocks that meet its pro-life social criteria, and the 2ndVote Society Defended ETF which invested in stocks that meet its 2nd Amendment and border security social criteria.

One ETF that is considered by many to be a “liberal” ETF is the SPDR MSCI ACWI Climate Paris Aligned ETF (NZAC). It is for “investors seeking to implement net-zero strategies and address climate change in a holistic way”. The ETF is up 21%.

The year 2024 should be an interesting year, not just for politics and the election, but for the political ETFs.

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

Political ETFs: Yes, You Can Buy a Republican or Democrat ETF

by Fred Fuld III

Normally, I never publish anything directly related to politics on this site. However, on the predecessor site, I did publish the President Barack Obama Stock Portfolio and the Mitt Romney Stock Portfolio, back in 2012.

Earlier in 2007, I published the Bill and Hillary Clinton Stock Portfolio and the Hillary Clinton Stock Index. There were also many other stock indexes that year, including:
Rudy Giuliani Stock Index
John McCain Stock Index
Joe Biden Stock Index
Mitt Romney Stock Index

With the presidential election coming up in less than a year and a half, and the primaries much sooner, investors are paying more attention to politics.

So did you know that there is a Republican oriented Exchange Traded Fund and a Democrat oriented ETF? A conservative ETF and a liberal ETF? Well there are.

The Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NANC) invests in companies that sitting Democratic members of United States Congress and/or their families also have reported to have invested in. The expense ratio is 0.75%.

The Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (KRUZ) invests in stocks that sitting Republican members of United States Congress and/or their families also have reported to have invested in. The expense ratio is 0.75%.

NANC vs. KRUZ, Source: Yahoo! Finance (blue line Democratic, red line Republican)

As you can see, so far this year since inception, just comparing the two ETFs that track the investments of politicians, the Democrats are outperforming the Republicans. But there are plenty more political ETFs.

The God Bless America ETF (YALL) is an ETF that screens out companies that support liberal political activism and social agendas. Year-to-date total return is 26.04% and the expense ratio is 0.65%.

The Democratic Large Cap Core ETF (DEMZ) invests in large cap companies that make political contributions to Democratic Party candidates and political action committees above a certain threshold. Year-to-date total return is 13.67% and the expense ratio is 0.45%. It pays a yield of 0.91%.

The Point Bridge America First ETF (MAGA) has a goal of investing in companies  that are highly supportive of Republican candidates. Year-to-date total return is 1.93% and the expense ratio is 0.72%. It pays a yield of 1.42%.

The American Conservative Values ETF (ACVF) invests in stocks that meet its politically conservative criteria. Year-to-date total return is 14.45% and the expense ratio is 0.75%. It pays a yield of 0.92%.

The 2ndVote Life Neutral Plus ETF (LYFE) invests in stocks that meet its pro-life social criteria.

The 2ndVote Society Defended ETF (EGIS) invests in stocks that meet its 2nd Amendment and border security social criteria.

So now, not only do you have many choices of presidential candidates, you also have many political ETF choices.

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

How to Speculate on the Results of the Presidential Election

by Fred Fuld III

If you have been wondering what the percentage chance of a particular candidate winning an election, there is a website you can check out.

It shows the betting odds for the U.S. presidential election and the odds for the Senate control and the House control, based on the oddsmakers.

The site is called Election Betting Odds. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately?) for Americans, there are laws prohibiting betting on political elections in the United State (with one exception which will be described later in this article).

The Election Betting Odds site is based primarily on Betfair.com, the major betting site based in the UK, along with other sources. Americans are not allowed to bet on this site.

However, if you are a U.S. citizen and you really want to speculate on the outcome of the upcoming elections, you can use a site called PredictIt.org. Why is there this loophole?

Well first, Predictit.org is an experimental project operated for academic purposes at New Zealand’s Victoria University under permission from the CFTC, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

Second, the maximum you can “invest” is only $850, so there is not a huge risk to traders if they lose. Bid amounts range from one penny to 99 cents.

The interesting feature about PredictIt is that there are numerous politically related possibilities that you can speculate on, not just the presidential election.

Here are just a few of the things you can bet on:

  • Which party will win Florida in 2020?
  • Will Nancy Pelosi become Acting U.S. President on January 20?
  • Who will win the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic gubernatorial primary?
  • Will Trump resign during his first term?
  • Who will be the next justice to leave the Supreme Court?
  • Will a federal charge against Rudy Giuliani be confirmed by Dec. 31, 2020?
  • Will Kim Jong-Un be Supreme Leader of North Korea on Dec. 31?
  • Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on Dec. 31, 2020?
  • Will Scottish Parliament call for an independence referendum in 2020?
  • Will NASA find 2020’s global average temperature highest on record?

I found it fascinating just to browse through to see all the different things that people are speculating on.

Which Politicians Are Your Friends and Family Donating Money To?

As we approach the presidential election, money is starting to flow to campaigns.

Have you ever wondered who your friends really support? How about your family members?

The best way to tell who someone really supports is to follow the money.

Here is how you can find out what politicians they have donated too. The Federal Election Commission actually posts this information on their website. All you need to do is enter the name of the Contributor and the Zip Code, adjust the date range, scroll down and see the results.

To test it out, enter your mayor or city council members.

Click the following link to do your search:

Federal Election Commission Donor Search

https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/individual-contributions/?two_year_transaction_period=2020&min_date=01%2F01%2F2015&max_date=12%2F31%2F2020