Month: December 2025

by Fred Fuld III

One long-standing seasonal investment approach is the strategy of buying stocks near year end that have fallen sharply over the prior twelve months and have been pushed even lower by tax-motivated selling. This tactic is rooted in the observation that many investors sell losing positions in November and December to realize capital losses, either to offset gains elsewhere in their portfolios or to reduce taxable income. The resulting wave of selling pressure can temporarily drive prices below levels justified by a company’s underlying fundamentals.

As the calendar year draws to a close, this tax-loss selling can become somewhat mechanical. Portfolio managers and individual investors alike may sell simply because the stock is down, not because new negative information has emerged. In smaller or less liquid stocks, this effect can be especially pronounced, with prices sagging into the final weeks of December as sellers overwhelm a limited pool of buyers. For contrarian investors, these conditions can create opportunities to purchase shares at depressed prices.

The thesis behind the strategy hinges on what is often referred to as the “January effect.” Once the new year begins, the incentive to sell for tax reasons disappears, and in some cases investors even buy back stocks they sold weeks earlier. At the same time, fresh capital flows into the market in January from year-end bonuses, retirement account contributions, and new allocations by institutions. This shift in supply and demand can lead to a rebound in stocks that were heavily sold in December, producing short-term gains for investors who bought during the year-end slump.

However, not every beaten-down stock is a good candidate for a January bounce. The most promising situations are often companies that are down substantially for cyclical or temporary reasons rather than due to permanent impairment of the business. Distinguishing between stocks that are merely unpopular and those that are fundamentally broken is critical. Investors who apply this strategy typically look for balance sheet strength, ongoing profitability, or clear catalysts that could improve sentiment once selling pressure eases.

Risk management is an essential part of this approach. Because the strategy is partly based on market behavior rather than long-term fundamentals, the anticipated bounce may be modest or may not occur at all. Broader market conditions, unexpected news, or continued deterioration in a company’s prospects can overwhelm any seasonal effect. As a result, many practitioners treat year-end tax-loss buying as a tactical, short-term trade rather than a buy-and-hold investment.

There are six stocks are interesting possibilities for a January bounce. They all have the same characteristics, as follows:

• Stocks down over 75% this year
• Selling below book value
• Selling below cash per share
• Market caps above $65 million
• US based

The list below show shows the company name, the stock symbol, and the industry:

In summary, buying stocks near year end that are deeply down and further depressed by tax-loss selling is a contrarian strategy that seeks to exploit temporary price distortions. When successful, it can benefit from the easing of selling pressure and renewed demand in January. Like all market strategies, it requires discipline, careful stock selection, and an understanding that seasonal patterns are tendencies, not guarantees.

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written. No recommendations are expressed or implied.