Tag: IBKR

The “Cash-Rich” Bargain: Trading Below Cash per Share

by Fred Fuld III

In the world of value investing, few metrics signal a potential “steal” more than a stock trading below its cash per share. This scenario suggests that if a company were to shut its doors today, pay off all its obligations, and distribute the remaining cash, you would potentially walk away with more money than you paid for the stock. Essentially, the market is valuing the actual business operations at less than zero.

Why Investors Hunt for “Negative Enterprise Value”

When a stock’s price is lower than its net cash (cash minus total debt) per share, it provides a unique margin of safety.

  • Liquidation Value: The company is theoretically worth more dead than alive.
  • Acquisition Magnet: These companies are prime targets for buyouts, as an acquirer could use the company’s own cash to help fund the purchase.
  • Buyback Potential: Management can use that excess cash to buy back shares, drastically increasing the ownership stake of remaining shareholders.

The Red Flags: Why the “Bargain” Might Be a Trap

If it sounds too good to be true, sometimes it is. A stock trading below its cash value is often a signal of extreme market pessimism. You must watch out for:

  1. High Debt Loads: If a company has $10 in cash per share but $15 in debt, it isn’t “cheap”—it’s underwater. Always look at Net Cash (Cash – Total Debt).
  2. Cash Burn: In industries like biotech or tech, a company might have a mountain of cash today but be losing so much money monthly that the cash will be gone in a year.
  3. Governance Issues: Sometimes cash is “trapped” in foreign subsidiaries or controlled by management that refuses to return it to shareholders.

Profile of Potential Value Stocks

While some companies often have high cash balances, it is vital to distinguish between Gross Cash and Net Cash (after debt).

Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Harley-Davidson often appears in value screens due to its massive financing arm (HDFS), which holds significant cash but also carries substantial debt.

  • Market Status (Feb 2026): Trading around $20.14.
  • The Profile: HOG is currently viewed as a deep-value play, trading at a P/E of roughly 4.7x, significantly below its peers.
  • Watch Out For: The company faces declining motorcycle shipments (down ~17-22% recently). Its cash is often tied to its financial services wing, meaning the “cash per share” can be misleading if you don’t account for the debt used to fund those motorcycle loans.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

As a brokerage, IBKR’s balance sheet is unique. It holds vast amounts of client cash, which can inflate “cash per share” metrics.

  • Market Status (Feb 2026): Trading around $74.90.
  • The Profile: IBKR has seen a massive run-up (up 30% in the last year). It holds over $105B in cash and short-term investments, but its debt-to-equity ratio sits at about 121%.
  • Watch Out For: Valuation. While cash-rich, many analysts consider it overvalued at current prices because the market is already pricing in high interest-income margins.

TriNet Group (TNET)

TriNet provides HR solutions and often carries a “light” balance sheet with significant cash flow.

  • Market Status (Feb 2026): Trading around $42.00 after a recent 28% plunge.
  • The Profile: Following a lowered 2026 outlook, the stock is currently in the “doghouse.”
  • Watch Out For: Rising healthcare costs are eating into their margins. While they have a history of aggressive buybacks, the current net loss in Q4 2025 suggests the cash pile might be needed for operations rather than being “excess.”

WEX Inc. (WEX)

WEX operates in the financial technology space, focusing on fleet and corporate payments.

  • Market Status (Feb 2026): Trading around $157.00.
  • The Profile: Analysts suggest the stock is significantly undervalued based on future cash flow models (some estimates as high as $400/share).
  • Watch Out For: High Leverage. WEX has a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.49, which is much higher than the industry average. This is a classic example of where “cash per share” can be a trap if you ignore the massive debt obligations.

Keep in mind that cash may not always be king.

Disclosure: Author owns HOG.

Can You Predict the Future of Predictive Markets?

by Fred Fuld III

In 2026, the world of prediction markets has moved from the fringes of the internet to the center of global finance.These platforms are essentially information exchanges where users buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of real-world outcomes. If you think a candidate will win an election or a tech giant will hit its earnings target, you buy a “Yes” contract. If the event happens, the contract pays out; if it doesn’t, it expires worthless.

The beauty of these markets is their accuracy. Because participants have “skin in the game,” the price of a contract serves as a real-time, crowd-sourced probability that often outperforms traditional polling and expert analysis.

Here is a breakdown of the primary prediction market platforms available today.

1. Kalshi

The Regulated Heavyweight Kalshi is currently the dominant player in the U.S. market. It operates as a federally regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This regulation allows it to offer a high degree of trust and seamless integration with U.S. bank accounts.

  • Availability to US Citizens: Fully Available. Kalshi is a U.S.-based company and is legal for residents in most states (though some states like Massachusetts and New Jersey have recently challenged or geofenced specific sports markets).
  • Event Types: Known for “macro” events. You can bet on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, inflation data, Box Office totals, Rotten Tomatoes scores, and—most famously—elections. In late 2025, they expanded significantly into sports event contracts (e.g., NFL, NBA).

2. Polymarket

The Crypto Giant Polymarket is the world’s largest decentralized prediction market. Built on the Polygon blockchain, it uses the USDC stablecoin for all transactions. After being restricted in the U.S. for several years, it began a regulated comeback via a new legal framework in late 2025.

  • Availability to US Citizens: Limited / Phased Rollout. As of February 2026, Polymarket is returning to the U.S. through a regulated channel. While many U.S. users are still on waitlists, the platform is increasingly accessible compared to its previous “offshore-only” status.
  • Event Types: Unrivaled variety. Polymarket covers everything from global geopolitical conflicts and crypto price movements to pop culture “memes” and scientific breakthroughs. If it’s being talked about on the internet, there is likely a market for it on Polymarket.

3. PredictIt

The Political Laboratory PredictIt is a project of Victoria University of Wellington and serves primarily as an educational and research tool. Because it operates under a “no-action” letter from the CFTC (though this has been the subject of intense legal battles), it has strict limits on how much a single person can invest.

  • Availability to US Citizens: Fully Available. It is specifically designed for the U.S. market, though it has a $3,500 position limit per contract to keep it focused on research rather than institutional speculation.
  • Event Types: Politics only. PredictIt does not offer sports or weather. It focuses exclusively on U.S. elections, Supreme Court rulings, and legislative outcomes.

4. Robinhood (HOOD) & Interactive Brokers (IBKR) [ForecastEx]

The Traditional Entrants In the last year, major traditional brokerages have entered the fray. Robinhood now offers election and event contracts directly in its app, often routing orders through Kalshi’s infrastructure. Interactive Brokers launched ForecastEx, a dedicated exchange for economic and climate-related predictions.

  • Availability to US Citizens: Fully Available. These are standard U.S. financial institutions.
  • Event Types: Mostly focused on “serious” data: Economic indicators (CPI, unemployment), climate data (global temperature averages), and major political milestones.

While prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools, they are not “safe” investments like savings accounts. Because they are binary (paying out either $1 or $0), they carry unique risks that combine the volatility of tech stocks with the “all-or-nothing” nature of sports betting.

As of early 2026, these are the primary risks you face when trading these markets:

1. Regulatory & Legal Risk

The “legal status” of these platforms is a moving target. Even if a platform is federally regulated, state-level challenges remain a major hurdle.

  • State-Level Shutdowns: In early 2026, several states (including New Jersey and Maryland) issued cease-and-desist letters to platforms, claiming they bypass state gambling laws. You could find your account geofenced or restricted with little notice.
  • Tax Uncertainty: The IRS has not yet issued formal guidance on whether prediction market gains are “capital gains” or “gambling winnings.” This could lead to unexpected tax liabilities or penalties if you misreport your earnings.

2. Insider Trading & Information Asymmetry

Unlike the stock market, where insider trading is a strictly enforced crime, prediction markets often rely on insiders to move the price toward the “truth.”

  • The “Whale” Effect: Large traders with deep pockets or non-public information (e.g., a political staffer who knows a bill will fail) can move the price before you have a chance to react.
  • Enforcement Risk: On February 5, 2026, federal prosecutors in New York signaled they would begin charging traders who use “material non-public information” with wire fraud, moving toward a stricter enforcement era.

3. Liquidity & Execution Risk

Liquidity refers to how easily you can enter or exit a trade without significantly changing the price.

  • The “Exit” Problem: In “thin” markets (low volume), you might buy a contract at $0.60, but when you want to sell, the best buyer is only offering $0.50—even if no news has changed.
  • Slippage: If you try to place a large bet on a niche topic (like a specific scientific discovery), your own buy order might push the price from $0.30 to $0.45, instantly destroying your potential profit margin.

4. Platform & Technical Risk

Because many of these platforms use “Web3” or hybrid infrastructure, they face unique technical vulnerabilities.

  • Oracle Failure: A “Yes” or “No” payout depends on an Oracle (the data source that confirms the outcome). If an Oracle is hacked or provides ambiguous data, your funds could be locked in a dispute for months.
  • Account Security: In late 2025, a major breach of a third-party authentication provider highlighted that even if the “blockchain” is safe, the login screen might not be.

5. Manipulation & “Noise”

Prediction markets can be susceptible to intentional distortion.

  • Wash Trading: Some participants may trade back and forth with themselves to create the illusion of high volume and interest.
  • Propaganda Bets: Political campaigns or wealthy donors have been known to place massive bets to make their candidate look more likely to win in the media, creating a “narrative” that isn’t backed by actual data.

Keep these risks in mind before dipping your toe into predictive markets.

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above stocks at the time the article was written. No recommendation are expressed or implied.

Stocks Going Ex Dividend in February 2021

The following is a short list of some of the many stocks going ex dividend during the next month.

Many traders and investors use the stock trading technique called ‘Buying Dividends,’ also commonly referred to as ‘Dividend Capture.’ This is the strategy of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend.

TOP DIVIDEND STOCKS

This technique generally works in bull markets and flat or choppy markets, but you need to avoid the strategy during bear markets. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can’t sell the stock until after the ex date.

The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork.com has compiled a downloadable and sortable list of the stocks going ex dividend in the near future. The list contains many dividend paying companies, lots with market caps over $500 million, and some with yields over 2%. Here are a few examples showing the stock symbol, the ex-dividend date, the periodic dividend amount.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) 2/4/2021 0.70 0.79%
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) 2/4/2021 0.10 1.34%
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) 2/11/2021 0.965 4.11%
Target Corporation (TGT) 2/16/2021 0.68 1.50%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 2/22/2021 1.01 2.39%
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) 2/26/2021 0.10 0.65%

The additional ex-dividend stocks can be found HERE . (If you have been to the page before, and the latest link doesn’t show up, you may have to empty your cache.) If you like dividend stocks, you should check out some of the other high yield stock lists at WSTNN.com HERE .

Dividend definitions:

Declaration date: the day that the company declares that there is going to be an upcoming dividend.

Ex-dividend date: the day on which if you buy the stock, you would not be entitled to that particular dividend; or the first day on which a shareholder can sell the shares and still be entitled to the dividend.

Record date: the day when you must be on the company’s books as a shareholder to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is normally set for stocks at two business days before the record date.

Payment date: the day on which the dividend payment is actually made, which can be as long at two months after the ex date.

TOP DIVIDEND STOCKS

Don’t forget to reconfirm the ex-dividend date with the company before implementing this technique.

Disclosure: Author did not own any of the above at the time the article was written; affiliate links.

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Top Dividend Stocks
Top 100 Dividend Stocks, Ex-dividend Ratings, High Yield Ratings, Monthly Reports And More

 

Stocks Going Ex Dividend February 2020

The following is a short list of some of the many stocks going ex dividend during the next month.

Many traders and investors use the stock trading technique called ‘Buying Dividends,’ also commonly referred to as ‘Dividend Capture.’ This is the strategy of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend.

TOP DIVIDEND STOCKS

This technique generally works in bull markets and flat or choppy markets, but you need to avoid the strategy during bear markets. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can’t sell the stock until after the ex date.

The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork.com has compiled a downloadable and sortable list of the stocks going ex dividend in the near future. The list contains many dividend paying companies, lots with market caps over $500 million, and many with yields over 2%. Here are a few examples showing the stock symbol, the ex-dividend date, the periodic dividend amount.

NortonLifeLock Inc. (NLOK) 2/3/2020 0.12 1.82%
American Electric Power (AEP) 2/7/2020 0.70 2.75%
Schlumberger (SLB) 2/11/2020 0.50 5.59%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) 2/13/2020 1.60 2.87%
Southern Company (SO) 2/14/2020 0.62 3.56%
Consolidated Edison Inc (ED) 2/18/2020 0.765 3.27%
Target Corporation (TGT) 2/18/2020 0.66 2.28%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 2/24/2020 0.95 2.55%
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) 2/27/2020 0.10 0.85%

The additional ex-dividend stocks can be found HERE . (If you have been to the page before, and the latest link doesn’t show up, you may have to empty your cache.) If you like dividend stocks, you should check out some of the other high yield stock lists HERE . Most of the lists are free.

Dividend definitions:

Declaration date: the day that the company declares that there is going to be an upcoming dividend.

Ex-dividend date: the day on which if you buy the stock, you would not be entitled to that particular dividend; or the first day on which a shareholder can sell the shares and still be entitled to the dividend.

Record date: the day when you must be on the company’s books as a shareholder to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is normally set for stocks at two business days before the record date.

Payment date: the day on which the dividend payment is actually made, which can be as long at two months after the ex date.

TOP DIVIDEND STOCKS

Don’t forget to reconfirm the ex-dividend date with the company before implementing this technique.

Disclosure: Author did not own any of the above at the time the article was written, and affiliate links.

OptionPop

Try the Warren Buffett-style Stock Analyzer for FREE!

 

Top Dividend Stocks
Top 100 Dividend Stocks, Ex-dividend Ratings, High Yield Ratings, Monthly Reports And More

 

Stocks Going Ex Dividend the Fifth Week of November

Here is our latest update on the stock trading technique called ‘Buying Dividends,’ also commonly referred to as ‘Dividend Capture.’ This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend.

This technique generally works only in bull markets, and can work in flat or choppy markets, but you need to avoid the technique during bear markets. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can’t sell the stock until after the ex date.

The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork.com has compiled a downloadable and sortable list of the stocks going ex dividend in the near future. The list contains many dividend paying companies, lots with market caps over $500 million, and yields over 2%. Here are a few examples showing the stock symbol, the ex-dividend date, the quarterly dividend amount, and annual yield.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 11/27/2017 0.84 2.38%
Goldman Sachs Group (GS) 11/29/2017 0.75 1.18%
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) 11/30/2017 0.1 0.73%
Kellogg Company (K) 11/30/2017 0.54 3.21%
Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) 11/30/2017 2 2.35%

The additional ex-dividend stocks can be found here at wstnn.com. (If you have been to the website before, and the latest link doesn’t show up, you may have to empty your cache.) If you like dividend stocks, you should check out some of the other high yield stock lists at WallStreetNewsNetwork.com or WStNN.com. Most of the lists are free.

Dividend definitions: Declaration date: the day that the company declares that there is going to be an upcoming dividend.

Ex-dividend date: the day on which if you buy the stock, you would not be entitled to that particular dividend; or the first day on which a shareholder can sell the shares and still be entitled to the dividend.

Monthly Dividend Stock List

Record date: the day when you must be on the company’s books as a shareholder to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is normally set for stocks at two business days before the record date.

Payment date: the day on which the dividend payment is actually made, which can be as long at two months after the ex date.

Don’t forget to reconfirm the ex-dividend date with the company before implementing this technique.

Disclosure: Author did not own any of the above at the time the article was written.