Top Inflation Hedge Gold Mining Stocks

by Fred Fuld III

It was just back in September when I wrote the article Top Gold Mining Stocks, almost six months to the day. In the article, I listed seven gold mining companies. The following shows the returns for those stocks.

Stock Symbol 9/13/22 3/10/22 Gain/Loss
AngloGold Ashanti Limited AU 15.5 25.73 66%
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc CMCL 12.36 13.49 9%
DRDGOLD Limited DRD 9.15 10.14 11%
Gold Fields Limited GFI 8.64 16.69 93%
Harmony Gold Mining Company HMY 3.28 5.41 65%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC 5.75 5.66 -2%
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW 13.61 18.32 35%
AVERAGE 40%

As you can see, there was only one loser in the bunch, Kinross Gold (KGC) which was down 2%. However, all the others were up substantially. One, Gold Fields (GFT), almost doubled. The overall average return was 40%; not too shabby for a six month period.

Gold an Inflation Hedge & Recession Hedge?

Some studies have shown that gold may not track inflation during short time frames, but over long periods of time, gold has been considered an inflation hedge and a hedge against a downturn in the economy.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “gold prices can act as an indicator of the health of the economy. A rise in the price of gold may be a signal that the economy is struggling. As a result, in times of either a crisis or inflation, many investors turn to gold to protect their principal. By contrast, in times of economic stability, investors are more likely to turn to more speculative investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. During these times, the price for gold often declines.”

(What is surprising about this statement is that stocks, bonds, and real estate are considered “speculative investments”. Does that make gold a “safe investment”?)

Top Gold Mining Stocks

So now that gold has started to move up, and recently broke the $2000 an ounce price barrier, what gold mining stocks have solid ratios now.

There are currently four gold mining companies that have trailing price to earnings ratios of less than 25, forward price to earnings ratios of less than 25, and yields above 2%. You will notice that only one stock from the old list, Agnico, made the cut for the new list.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Agnico Eagle is a Canadian based mining company with mines in Canada, Sweden, and Finland. The stock has a trailing P/E ratio of 23.3, a forward P/E ratio of 24.33, and pays a yield of 2.28%. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 79%.

AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)

AngloGold, based in Johannesburg, South Africa, has mines in Africa, North America, South America, and Australia. The stock trades at 16.9 times trailing earnings and 12 times forward earnings. The dividend payout rate is 2.11%. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 97%.

B2Gold Corp. (BTG)

The Canada based company, B2Gold, has three operating mines in Mali, the Philippines, and Namibia. The stock has a very favorable P/E ratio of 10.7 and forward P/E of 10.4. Even the price to earnings growth ratio is a commendable 0.53. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 33%.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW)

Sibanye is a South African company that has mines in South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The stock has an excellent price to earnings ratio of 6.2, with a forward P/E of 12.2. Annual earnings per share growth for the last five years is 41%.

Maybe one of these mining stocks can provide your portfolio with a pot of gold.

Disclosure: Author owns BTG

8 Ways to Trade or Invest in Gold in an Inflationary Environment

by Fred Fuld III

You have seen the headlines during the last several months. You have noticed the price increases on Amazon (AMZN), in your supermarket, and even at the dollar stores (which should probably now be called the $1.25 stores). Have you considered using gold as an inflation hedge?

Inflation Headlines

Inflation is here and it’s getting worse. Investors and traders that understand this are now looking for ways to profit from inflation.

Of course no one expects hyperinflation, as was seen in Zimbabwe in 2008. Zimbabwe 100 trillion

In Zimbabwe, the country’s peak month of inflation is estimated at 79.6 billion percent month over month, and 89.7 sextillion percent year over year in mid-November of 2008. That’s an inflation rate in numerical terms of 89,000,000,000,000,000,000,000%.

Zimbabwe $100 billion for 3 eggs

Back then, it cost billions of dollars just to buy basic food items. Inflation was so bad that  the country allowed currencies from other countries to be used in April 2009. In 2015, Zimbabwe switched to the U.S. dollar as its national currency.

In 2019, Zimbabwe reintroduced the Zimbabwe dollar, but unfortunately, hyperinflation has hit the country again, measuring 737% last year.

So what is a trader and investor to do? Here are several ways to make gold work for you.

Gold

Gold has long been considered a primary inflation hedge. Over the last 20 years, the price of gold has increased by 597%, which works out to an annualized return of 10.19%. Taking inflation into consideration, gold has gone up by 335%, or 7.622% annualized.

Many studies have shown that gold has provided superior returns during times of inflation. In addition, according to a study at the Stern School of Business at New York University, “overall gold by itself is a safe haven with respect to exhibiting lower volatility in response to shocks or negative return days.”

The big question is, if you want to invest in gold, how should you do it?

Physical Gold

Physical gold means gold that you can hold in your hot little hands. This could either be gold bullion or gold coins.

Gold Bullion

Gold Bars

Gold bullion is sometimes referred to as gold bars, similar to the bars in Fort Knox. They can be as small as one gram or as large as  400 ounces (27.5 pounds).

The big advantage of gold bullion is privacy. Bullion bars can be kept anywhere: a home safe, a safe deposit box, or in the ground. Another advantage is that bullion is generally less expensive than gold coins, even bullion gold coins.

Gold Bullion Coins

Gold bullion coins are coins that are issued by governments with a very high gold content, but very little or no numismatic value, but are issued as legal tender. In other words, they sell for very close to the price of gold. These coins include the American Gold Eagle and the Canadian Maple Leaf.

Maple Leaf

These coins also have the benefit of privacy, but they are also issued in various denominations, making them easier to trade. For example, if you have a one ounce gold bar but you want to sell one quarter of the gold, you would be stuck. However, you do have the ability to own four American Eagle quarter-ounce gold coins, or even ten 1/10th ounce coins.

Many investors believe that the gold coins have better liquidity than bullion. However, the premium on gold coins is higher than the premium on bullion, and the smaller the denomination of the coin, the higher the premium.

Numismatic Gold Coins

Numismatic gold coins are coins which have value due to their scarcity, physical appearance, condition, and many other factors. They are collected by coin collectors.

Double Eagle
National Numismatic Collection, National Museum of American History

The big advantage is that the value of these coins can increase far more than the value of gold, and can even go up in price if the gold price stays the same or even drops. They are less liquid than bullion coins and have a much bigger spread (the price at which you pay for the coin versus what you can sell it for). The other disadvantage is that the coins have a much higher premium than bullion coins.

There is one big estate tax advantage to owning U.S. numismatic gold coins. Talk to your accountant about it. It is currently legal and above board as far as I know, but I am not an accountant or tax attorney. Consult yours.

Gold Securities

Gold ETFs

Gold ETFs are Exchange Traded Funds that have a goal of tracking the price of gold. There are many of them including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM).

There are even some leveraged gold ETFs, such as ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), which has a goal of providing twice the daily leverage of gold prices.

Gold Mining Stocks

There are many gold mining companies to choose from. The smaller companies are referred to as junior miners (not minor miners). Some of the bigger ones include Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD),AngloGold Ashanti (AU), and Kinross Gold (KGC).

Gold Royalty Trusts

Gold Royalty Trusts do not do any mining. What they do is provide money to mining companies in return for receiving a stream of income based on a percentage of revenues or percentage of gold production.

Some of the biggest gold trusts are Franco-Nevada (FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Royal Gold (RGLD), and Osisko Gold Royalties (OR).

Gold Miners ETFs

Gold Miners ETFs are Exchange Traded Funds that invest in gold mining stocks. VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is the largest of these ETFs. VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) holds the smaller (junior) mining companies. Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2x Shares (NUGT) is a double bullish ETF.

Gold Futures

One other way to invest in gold, which is the most speculative way, is through gold futures. These are exchange-traded contracts to buy or sell a specific amount of gold in the future at a specified price. The returns can be substantial but so are the risks, as your losses can far exceed the original investment that you put up.

How Much Should You Invest in Gold

Many financial advisors recommend that you hold a small amount of gold, up to 5% to 10% of your portfolio as a hedge. Hopefully, gold will make your portfolio sparkle and shine.

Disclosure: Author is long AMZN, GLD, WPM, and OR.

Top Gold Mining Stocks

by Fred Fuld III

Why invest in gold?

It may have bottomed out on a short term basis.

Inflation is on the horizon.

Provides diversification by asset type.

It provides protection against a falling dollar.

It is used in the tech industry.

What are some the the best gold mining stocks?

All of the following stocks have a trailing price to earnings ratio of less than 15, a forward P/E ratio of less than 15, and pay a dividend with a yield of at least 2%.

AngloGold Ashanti Limited AU
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc CMCL
DRDGOLD Limited DRD
Gold Fields Limited GFI
Harmony Gold Mining Company HMY
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW

Caledonia is based in the United States, Kinross is based in Canada, and the rest are based in South Africa.

Hopefully, one of these gold mining stocks will make your portfolio shine.

 

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.

Is It Time for Gold Stocks to Move Up?

by Fred Fuld III

Over the last three months, stocks have been going up, bitcoin has been going up, but gold and gold mining stocks have been dropping in price.

This is in spite of the fact that gold is considered a safe haven, interest rates are very low, the dollar is weak, and the economy will experience eventual increasing inflation.

Not only that, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B) bought Barrick Gold (GOLD) earlier this year.

So it it time for gold and the gold mining stocks to start moving up?

The following is a group of gold stocks that are down over 10% for the latest quarter, have a trailing price to earnings ratio of less than 20, and a forward P/E ratio of less than 20.

AngloGold (AU)

Caledonia Mining (CMCL)

Galiano Gold (GAU)

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Disclosure: Author didn’t own any of the above at the time the article was written.